Karl Rove Does the Math — And It Is Brutal

Karl Rove does the math on Tuesday, and by his tally it is one of the worst midterm defeats in a half-century — powered, he writes, by an NBC exit poll in which cost of living was crucial for nearly half of voters and a major factor for another 40%, nearly two-thirds said Trump’s policies made the economy worse, and 90% called government corruption a crucial or major factor. Rove: Republicans dropped from 53 in the Senate to no more than 46, with losses in Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas as well as Georgia, North Carolina and Maine. In the House, Democrats are expected to have around 258 seats, a pickup of at least 43. Many Republicans in supposedly safe districts narrowly escaped defeat. Democrats gained at least five governorships, giving them a majority for the first time in 16 years. The entire statewide GOP ticket in Texas lost. Democrats also picked up at least 500 state legislative seats, and flipped at least 11 chambers, including the state Houses in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas. They will take full control of the legislatures and governorships of Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and possibly Arizona. … This midterm defeat, one of the worst in a half-century, leaves the Trump presidency crippled. There’s no chance of confirming a conservative Supreme Court justice in the next two years, and maybe the next six. Republicans who have been afraid to break with the president will now do so, if only for self-preservation. The president will dodge responsibility and blame others. He’s already proclaimed on X, “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE.” Not true. Mr. Trump can’t escape blame so easily. He and his policies and candidate choices burned the Republican Party to the ground. (Wall Street Journal) The blame game is well underway. 

The Pollsters Missed Again — In the Other Direction

The pollsters missed again — this time in the other direction: per Axios, citing The Argument’s Lakshya Jain, Democrats are on track to win the House popular vote by roughly 13 points, against Silver Bulletin’s final polling average of 8.9 — a gap of about four points. Neal Rothschild: Democrats’ midterm tsunami obscured a major polling miss: Surveys correctly anticipated a blue wave, but failed to capture its full force. Why it matters: Pollsters appear to have underestimated Democrats by a wider margin than they underestimated Republicans in 2016 or 2024. (Axios) They spent four years correcting for the Trump voter — and missed the wave that actually showed up.

 

Contact:

Sean Trende, Real Clear Politics, strende@realclearpolitics.com

Michael Barone, AEI, 202-862-7174, michael.barone@aei.org; Research Assistant Ella Reider, 202-862-5899, Ella.Reider@aei.org

Henry Olsen, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, author & opinion columnist for The Washington Post, holsen@eppc.org

Larry O’Connor (Salem Syn Host & Podcast Host), (562) 665-9537; O’Connor & Company, larryoc@townhall.com; Exec. Prod. Heather Hunter, heatherhunterDC@gmail.com; SNC, Prod. Chris Levan, Chris.LeVan@salemnewschannel.com

The Exit Polls Suggest Results Are a Rebuke

NBC’s early exit poll reads as a referendum: Trump approval among voters at 38%, 63% calling the Iran strike the wrong decision — and on Israel, 51% of voters called U.S. support too strong, 37% about right and 12% not strong enough, with the split running by vote choice: of voters who called U.S. support for Israel too strong, 79% voted Democratic. NBC News: Nearly half of voters say they view the midterm election as an opportunity for a major rebuke of President Donald Trump’s performance, according to early results from the NBC News Exit Poll. Forty-three percent said one reason for their votes was to express opposition to Trump — far higher than the share who said the same in the 2018 midterm election during his first term. … An overwhelming majority said the nation’s economy is in rough shape (75%) — and 65% said Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the U.S. About half of voters casting ballots said the cost of living was crucial to their votes. That is the opposite of how voters viewed the economy in 2018 — a wave election for Democrats during Trump’s first term. That year, 68% of voters said the economy was in good shape. (NBC News) 

‘Lawyer Up’: The Subpoena Congress Publishes Its Target List

The new Democratic majority isn’t waiting for January to publish its target list — and the subpoena power that comes with the gavels reaches the Trump family business, private companies, and the law firms that bought peace from the White House; Sen. Ron Wyden’s one-word election-night post said the quiet part. Reuters: After two years in the minority during Trump’s second term, newly empowered Democrats could take aim at a range of targets, from administration figures to corporate donors and participants in business deals brokered by the Trump family. Unlike the White House, private companies cannot claim that their activities are protected by executive privilege. Democratic US Representative Robert Garcia, who currently serves as ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, said in a statement on Tuesday that next year as chairman he will investigate Trump’s family and administration, as well as private companies. “Lawyer up,” he said. Democratic US Senator Ron Wyden, who wrote simply “Subpoenas” in a post on X Tuesday night, said he plans to probe agreements between the Trump administration and pharmaceutical companies on drug pricing. (Reuters) — South Florida Sun Sentinel: In the Senate, Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., who is expected to become the chairman of the Homeland Security Committee’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, said his panel will want to look into Trump’s real estate projects around the nation’s capital and his crypto dealings with special envoy Steve Witkoff. Witkoff is a longtime ally who partnered with Trump on the president’s family cryptocurrency venture, World Liberty Financial. “The tentacles of corruption reach deep in this administration, and they have added costs to everyday Americans,” Blumenthal said in an interview with The Associated Press on Wednesday. The senator added that he also wants hearings on ICE raids, the actions of the Department of Government Efficiency and Medicare plans he says are too restrictive and have cost some patients care. (South Florida Sun Sentinel) The investigations are not a threat. They are a staffing plan.

Data Centers Are the Eye of the Hurricane

The AI buildout just became a ballot issue with teeth: CNBC’s Voter Poll found 56% of voters called AI and data centers a crucial or major factor in their decision — and 65% of those voters cast their ballots for Democrats. CNBC: After a big win in the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday, some Democrats are already signaling they want to take on the artificial build-out, specifically data centers. In a post on X, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., called for a national moratorium on data centers, pointing to a recent report that found some approved restrictions on data centers. Sanders, who caucuses with the Democrats, said the message to political leaders is clear. “National data center moratorium now,” he wrote in the post. “Americans don’t want Big Tech oligarchs wrecking the environment, gutting jobs and threatening humanity’s future.” (CNBC) — Realtor.com’s count puts data centers on the ballot in 41 communities across 12 states this week, and in nearly every case voters voted to restrict or ban them. Realtor.com: “Top of the Democratic agenda on day 1 needs to be a pause on advanced AI development, regulation of this out of control industry, and a ban on artificial superintelligence,” Rep. Yassamin Ansari (D-AZ) posted to X on Wednesday. In a video message Thursday, Sen. Bernie Sanders, (I-VT), said the votes Tuesday prove Americans want to slow data center development. This year, 20 Democrats signed on to a bill that would create a total moratorium on data center development. “Democrats must enact a national moratorium on AI data centers, must pause advanced AI development, and ban super-intelligence,” Sanders said. (Realtor.com) — Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa made the same fight a campaign pledge, vowing during the race: CNBC: When I am governor, I will issue a moratorium, a ban, on all data center approvals until laws can be passed by the legislature to protect Texans. (CNBC) The AI buildout now needs a political permit, not just a building permit.

Harmeet Dhillon, a Conservative Favorite, Bows Out

The first senior Justice Department departure of the new era was arranged before a single vote was counted: Harmeet Dhillon told the White House in early October that she planned to leave after the midterms, and on Thursday Attorney General Todd Blanche accepted her resignation as head of the Civil Rights Division — a departure she was slated to announce in a keynote spot at CPAC at Mar-a-Lago before returning to her law firm. NPR: The head of the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division, Harmeet Dhillon, is out after 18 tumultuous months in charge, during which she radically reshaped the unit’s mission, oversaw the mass exodus of career staff, and aggressively pursued President Trump’s agenda. Dhillon is the first senior department official to depart the Trump administration since Democrats retook control of the House and Senate in midterm elections. Attorney General Todd Blanche, in a statement on X, announced Dhillon’s resignation and thanked her for her service. “She has defended the civil liberties of every American and enforced the law without fear or favor,” he wrote. “The Department is grateful for her dedicated public service, and we wish her every success in her future endeavors.” In her own statement, Dhillon said the job had been “the honor of a lifetime.” “We ushered in the downfall of illegal DEI, we fought to protect women in girls’ sports, and so much more,” she added. (NPR) Dhillon’s exit was on the calendar before the votes were counted, and not part of a purge.

Rumors Over Reality? Resignation and Firing Watch Fueled By Speculation

The Cabinet rumor mill is already churning, with anonymous sources naming names and the administration swatting the stories down on the record. CBS News: President Trump has been asking advisers around him and on the phone whether Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth should stay in his job, following Republicans’ catastrophic losses Tuesday night, multiple sources familiar with the matter tell CBS News. Some White House aides have predicted some of the blame for GOP midterm losses will be trained on Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, who both played big roles in guidance on the Iran war. Still, other sources said the president hasn’t decided to replace Hegseth. (CBS News) Asked Wednesday whether he was considering replacing Hegseth, Donald Trump: No, I think he’s doing a very good job. (CBS News) White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the president has full confidence in Secretary Hegseth. Britain’s Independent put Secretary of State Marco Rubio on “resignation watch,” citing unnamed Republican sources and senior U.K. government figures who say he may leave to prepare a 2028 presidential bid — one Republican source told the paper Rubio “will be gone after the midterms,” and the paper reported up to five Cabinet members may be preparing to leave. (The Independent) Dylan Johnson, State Department: This is completely baseless fake news from made-up anonymous ‘sources’. (Clash Report) Anonymous sources are undefeated at starting rumors and winless at confirming them.

Everybody Is Fighting About J.D.

JD Vance blamed the Iran war for Tuesday’s wipeout, and the president’s own camp is now asking whether a man who won’t defend Trump’s decision can succeed him. Marc Thiessen: “The reason we lost is the war,” JD Vance declared in a shockingly disloyal post on X, adding, “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost.” Of course, this is ridiculous. While Iran was an important factor, the exit polls showed it was one of many issues that contributed to Tuesday’s results. … As the architect of the failed negotiations that extended the war, Vance should man up and take responsibility for leading the president into a strategic cul-de-sac — instead of publicly blaming his commander in chief. And if he cannot bring himself to say that he agrees that President Trump made the right decision to disarm Iran, he has no business seeking the GOP nomination to succeed him. If Vance can’t endorse Trump’s national security policy, Trump should not endorse him. (Washington Post) — Dmitri Bolt: Now, maybe none of this is enough to convince you that Vance is doing anything more than offering his own explanation for the defeat. But here is where it gets more interesting. The vice president cited four reasons for Republicans’ resounding midterm loss, in order of importance: the Iran war, the economy and inflation, “America First,” whatever that means in this context, and the United States’ relationship with Israel. He attributed that ranking to “the smartest data guy I know.” You know what is odd about that list? The exit polling doesn’t seem to support it beyond the economy and the Iran war. The last two seem to have appeared out of virtually nowhere. Even with his first two points, it is still unclear whether voters were upset about the Iran war itself or the high gas prices that resulted from it. In other polling, just four percent of voters identified “foreign policy” as a crucial issue in the election. (Townhall) Vance explained the loss by blaming the president’s war. Thiessen’s answer: the war wasn’t the failure — Vance’s negotiations were. Expect this to be a defining issue in 2028.

The Wave Reached Deep into Statehouses

The blue wave didn’t stop at the Capitol — it rolled through the statehouses, flipping 12 legislative chambers, dismantling five Republican trifectas and breaking 11 GOP supermajorities, with Democrats on track to control 51 of the nation’s 99 legislative chambers if current leads hold. Axios: Democrats are on track to take control of a majority of legislative chambers, ending 16 years of Republican dominance over America’s statehouses. If current leads hold, 75% of Americans will live in a state with a Democratic governor, and 53% will live in Democratic trifectas. Why it matters: Statehouses are the front line of American federalism, and Tuesday’s gains dramatically expand Democrats’ power to increase minimum wages, protect abortion access, and set voting rules ahead of 2028 for most Americans. (Axios) Texas shows how deep it cut: if results hold, Democrats take the state House 83–67 — a chamber Republicans have held since 2003 — while the state Senate holds at 19 Republicans to 12 Democrats. Texas Tribune: Democrats entered the night with 62 of the House’s 150 seats, needing to flip 14 to claim the majority. By early Wednesday afternoon, the Associated Press had called 11 Republican-held seats in their favor, and GOP incumbents had conceded in three others. Democrats led in at least seven other GOP districts where all Election Day returns had come in — positioning them to net 21 seats, barring changes from recounts or provisional and mail-in ballots that could still be tallied. (Texas Tribune) Washington got the headlines. The statehouses got the power — voting rules, wages and abortion law for most of the country, set just in time for 2028.

CAIR Brags About a New Muslim Milestone

The radicals’ bench keeps growing: by CAIR’s own preliminary tally, a record 97 Muslim candidates won office on Tuesday — up from 82 in 2022 — and CAIR expects the count to top 100 once the remaining races are called. CAIR: Today the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the nation’s largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization, and CAIR Action, the 501(c)4 political organization, released preliminary tracking results from the November 3 midterm elections showing at least 97 confirmed American Muslim electoral victories at the federal, state, and local levels across 21 states, including 38 state legislative wins. Another 15 Muslims are leading in races that have not yet been called, six Muslim candidates are running in races that are too close to call, and 50 Muslim candidates ran in races they did not win. … We congratulate the record number of American Muslims elected and reelected in these midterm elections, including our nation’s first Muslim U.S. senator. With additional Muslim candidates leading in races still being counted, we expect more than 100 American Muslims will have won election or reelection to office once all races are decided. We thank every candidate who stepped forward to serve and every voter who helped make these historic gains possible. These victories are a powerful rebuke to the anti-Muslim smears directed at candidates and their communities throughout this campaign. Voters in Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and across the country placed their trust in Muslim candidates’ leadership, ideas, and commitment to public service. Their success affirms that American Muslims belong at every level of government. (CAIR) Eighty-two was the record. Ninety-seven is the new floor — and CAIR is still counting.